The Champions League And The Old World Order
I watched Barcelona vs PSG last night and I thought PSG played reasonably well but were punished by a ruthless Barcelona and unfortunately the tie is as good as over. This got me thinking about the gap in quality between the two teams, I then thought about where they could both expect to be in a few years' time and this really got me thinking.
Because of FFP, Barcelona's success at a domestic and European level is sustainable, they are one of the richest clubs in the world. Barcelona could conceivably make their team better over the next few transfer windows (once they're allowed to buy again). PSG have financial resources at their disposal, but due to FFP (which PSG are already falling foul of), they cannot expect to close the gap to Barcelona. Worse again, they cannot hope to compete consistently in the Champions League until they earn as much money through gate receipts and commercial revenue streams as Barcelona - which may never happen.
So who can compete consistently with Barcelona? Real Madrid can, Bayern Munich can and Manchester United can (though they're nowhere near the level of Barcelona at the moment). Arsenal have the potential to be able compete, but at the very least it would take a long time and may never happen. I don't think any other club in Europe can compete with these four teams on a consistent basis. Basically, I think the Champions League is going to be won between these Big Four teams more times than not if FFP rules stay the same.
Think about it, who else could you see winning the Champions League this year? Atletico Madrid have a chance, but is their success in the Champions League sustainable? I don't think so. Bear in mind this is a club that domestically made less in TV revenue than Cardiff City last year, their best bet of improving is to sell somebody for a lot of money and buy somebody who's as good/better for less money - not something a club can rely on year after year. Also managers like Simeone don't grow on trees and unfortunately once he departs, I can see Atletico returning to the level of mediocrity (from a Champions League point of view) that preceded his appointment. Juventus and Porto (despite their good result last night) are in similar predicaments. Their problems are attracting, retaining and affording the players they need to compete at the highest level.
We see some of the same problems with Chelsea. Chelsea are a very good side, they bought Costa and Fabregas who've had a great impact on them. Chelsea are a sustainable club, they could have bought one of Fabregas or Costa without selling anyone/falling foul of FFP - but crucially - not both. So how did they afford both players (along with Filipe Luis)? They sold David Luiz, Mata, De Bruyne, Lukaku and Schurrle in the last 18 months - all for good money. The trick here was to sell players without making the team worse - and it's a great trick. However, who can Chelsea sell this year for big(ish) money without making their team worse? Cuadrado? Oscar? Both are possible but they're not going to garner as much money out of it as they did last year. Then you get to the question, what about the year after? Who do they sell then? You're into a football Russian Doll situation (no pun intended Mr Abramovich). So Chelsea have as good a team now as they can reasonably expect to have over the next few years, and while this is good enough domestically (and may well be in the near future), it wasn't good enough at a European level this year and probably won't be next year either.
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